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curuinor 1 hours ago [-]
Look. This is a new golden age of cocaine, because of the big cuts in everything in the US took away the cocaine busting operations in Colombia and Bolivia, because the revolutionaries that previously kept control of it stood down and became a political party and new, profit-driven cartels came up, and because battery technology means that narcosubs and similar drone things work much better than before (and they can be made remote-operated, so the cops can't do shit even when they find one). Wholesale prices have halved or gone down 60% to like, 12k usd / kilo, street prices commensurate. The huge new opportunities created by increased market size have increased competition and made the cartel nature of the cartels decrease. So always think of that when you look at people acting like this and having such megalomaniac goals.
UltraSane 42 minutes ago [-]
It would be hilarious if the price of cocaine actually affected macroeconomics because of how it affects human behavior.
fhdkweig 22 minutes ago [-]
It actually might. It affected the mood of stockbrokers in the 1980s, both because of general energy levels and also because they were addicted and had to keep the money flowing. That must do something to macroeconomics.
interestpiqued 49 minutes ago [-]
Honestly you have a point. The decrease in cost of cocaine is very real
speedgoose 1 hours ago [-]
I see myself over $3000T in potential revenues too. You shall see. Please invest.
Well I’m getting on this train. Even if he comes in under, that’s still like infinity percent growth from current!
tfrancisl 1 hours ago [-]
$30T? Why not $100T? $1000T? Why not $1 trillion trillion? If we're just pulling numbers out of our asses we may as well go big.
karmakurtisaani 45 minutes ago [-]
1 trillion trillion you say?! Sounds ridiculous, but if they can even reach 1% of that target, they'll make a killing! Sign me up!
intrasight 51 minutes ago [-]
Echoes of Enron
ForHackernews 1 hours ago [-]
"Our Neumann projections show us on track to achieve 15.3 heptillion dollars in annual revenue by the year 2030."
goatlover 37 minutes ago [-]
Data centering the universe is an improvement on paper clips I guess.
ViktorRay 45 minutes ago [-]
When all this crashes, future historians will look back and wonder how so many got hoodwinked by AI.
Some of these future historians might even be reading this Hacker News thread.
To any future historians reading this, many of us did know this AI stock bonanza was just a modern day tulip mania. Alas many wealthy people did get hoodwinked though.
horse-shot 1 hours ago [-]
Is it realistic to expect every person on earth to pay them $3,500?
sandeepkd 1 hours ago [-]
Of course, we just need to figure out how every person on earth would make at least $7,000 after they loose their job on the name of AI. (Assuming they need at least $3,500 for other basic needs).
tkahnoski 36 minutes ago [-]
Agree with the abrudity. I also had to look at are there other absurd but real things. Estimating at 4.2 trillion in oil revenue is about $500 per person globally. Until you factor in the uneven distribution of that revenue what seems like an order of magnitude problem goes away.
There are of course many other holes to poke in a high level estimate like this.
Brendinooo 46 minutes ago [-]
Stretch the timeline out enough and add enough inflation and anything is possible!
47 minutes ago [-]
goatlover 48 minutes ago [-]
Put 100% tariffs on everything and drive inflation and trade wars up.
greenavocado 1 hours ago [-]
Their friends control the Central Banks and the printing will continue until $30T buys you a loaf of bread
christophilus 1 hours ago [-]
Yeah. I see this estimate as either A) hot air (my serious take), or B) a dire warning of out of control inflation, or C) a prediction that they'll be a going concern in 500 years when $30T is in fact an average corporate revenue figure if the USD still exists by then.
jstummbillig 1 hours ago [-]
a) No. That is not realistic. Some would pay much more, most others way less.
b) If they get $3500 + x in return, why not? The pie is not fixed.
jazzpush2 1 hours ago [-]
I have completed stopped using Anthropic since Kimi 3 released, and only ever K3 and Codex nowadays. I pay for K3, and get Codex and Claude free from work. Almost everyone I know prefers Codex to Claude.
waffletower 1 hours ago [-]
All my friends know that Sam Altman uses astroturf as carpeting in his office.
mawadev 1 hours ago [-]
In fact, we should put an AI Tax on everything you buy, because AI was used somewhere to make it
onion2k 1 hours ago [-]
The question isn't whether or not every person pays $3500, but whether or not businesses can extract more than $3500 of value from their interactions with you to make it worthwhile for them to pay.
0cf8612b2e1e 51 minutes ago [-]
2025 revenue numbers:
- Microsoft $281 billion
- Apple $416 billion
- Google $402 billion
Seems likely that a company renting most of their hardware will generate multiples more cash than these established players
01284a7e 1 hours ago [-]
Before you dump it, you have to pump it...
In other words, we are to see a media barrage leading up to the IPO to get retail investors to jump on the stock.
the__alchemist 54 minutes ago [-]
There is still no way to search or filter your list of projects in the Claude sidebar, or get it to show you the active ones.
pwython 50 minutes ago [-]
Sure there is. You've been able to search/sort/filter/group for a while now.
pluc 56 minutes ago [-]
The only obstacle is everyone using it for everything
TSiege 45 minutes ago [-]
The combined revenue of the SP500 ~$18.28T, or ~14.8% of global GDP in 2025 (~118.35T). So is anthropic really saying that they expect to have 1.64x the revenue of the SP500 or that the total addressable revenue for AI they suspect is $30T? That number is at least plausible but expect to earn 25% of global GDP is a bit whacky unless you've drunk a lot of koolaid
seydor 58 minutes ago [-]
That is a typo. It is a Q not a T ! How could we have missed it
bitwize 56 minutes ago [-]
I'm sure Sam and Dario have a bottle of Cinco Comas sitting on that high shelf...
the__alchemist 58 minutes ago [-]
Puts once they IPO
AJRF 1 hours ago [-]
What are they currently making?
vesrah 55 minutes ago [-]
Over what period of time?
HarHarVeryFunny 46 minutes ago [-]
It's a Feynman path integral - integrated over all possible future trajectories of Anthropic, including those where they have a thriving business on Tatooine.
spwa4 52 minutes ago [-]
I feel like I'm a comedian saying this, but of course per year.
45 minutes ago [-]
misiti3780 57 minutes ago [-]
They should focus on fixing claude code, as I just canceled my 200/month subscription for codex because it's quality has degraded so much.
GPerson 48 minutes ago [-]
They’re focused on curing all cancers in 5 years. Curing claude code is beneath them.
paulpauper 59 minutes ago [-]
I remember how 3 years ago the consensus, even here, was it was a fad or unsustainable.
lovich 46 minutes ago [-]
As far as I am aware, they have yet to make a single dollar in profit.
At some point selling a dollar for 5 cents stops being a viable strategy.
mysterydip 36 minutes ago [-]
Sure, the revenue per unit looks bad, but we’ll make it up in volume!
goatlover 46 minutes ago [-]
You think $30 trillion projected growth is sustainable?
bigstrat2003 58 minutes ago [-]
It still is unsustainable.
glimshe 48 minutes ago [-]
That's awesome! I also predict that Leopold Aschenbrenner will be the world's first trillionaire under 30!
PS: Not.
ForHackernews 1 hours ago [-]
Yep, 92% of estimated US GDP in 2026. That sounds totally plausible to me.
garciasn 1 hours ago [-]
Or ~25% of the world's GDP.
SiempreViernes 60 minutes ago [-]
It's just 25 % of world GDP bro, and only slightly more than double the projected worldwide construction market in 2028.
josefritzishere 23 minutes ago [-]
This is delusional. Are you ready for the biggest short ever?
throwaway23597 42 minutes ago [-]
Honestly though, if they legitimately achieve RSI, I feel like all bets are off and anything could happen.
mmooss 47 minutes ago [-]
As you mock them, notice that they again emotionally provoked the public, using words that disrupt people's feeling of safety and stability and therefore which bypass their cognitive processes and hit directly in their emotions and alarm. That's the goal.
The mocking is usually an attempt to get back some equilibrium, to regain leverage, to make the scary threat into something smaller.
So it looks like their tactic worked yet again. Why is it a goal? One aim is to seize and hold the initiative, and also to make you compliant when they do further transgressive or dangerous things.
cindyllm 44 minutes ago [-]
[dead]
rvz 1 hours ago [-]
Now AI companies are playing with ridiculous Enron-level accounting tricks to justify their already inflated valuations?
hermitcrab 1 hours ago [-]
How else are they going to get rich selling something for a tenth of what it costs them?
intrasight 49 minutes ago [-]
Enron did it for years and the senior managers became fabulously wealthy.
ofjcihen 1 hours ago [-]
It’s heartening to see that most of HN is starting to call shenanigans on these ridiculous numbers.
apercu 45 minutes ago [-]
About time.
theideaofcoffee 46 minutes ago [-]
So I'm guessing that's the same $billion passed around these companies 30,000 times, then, right? If we're just pulling numbers out of thin air, I think I want to make $6723 kajillion dollars this year, and if I don't, I'm going to whine!
This shit is getting so fucking exhausting. No, you're not going to make $30 trillion. Ever. It's second-hand embarrassing how high these idiots are after huffing their own farts.
I hope it crashes and burns -hard-, and the 'wealth' of these insipid billionaire sociopaths 'leading' these operations evaporates so they're just another crank on the street corner so they're easier to ignore.
https://www.penny-arcade.com/comic/2000/05/26/this-could-be-...
Some of these future historians might even be reading this Hacker News thread.
To any future historians reading this, many of us did know this AI stock bonanza was just a modern day tulip mania. Alas many wealthy people did get hoodwinked though.
There are of course many other holes to poke in a high level estimate like this.
b) If they get $3500 + x in return, why not? The pie is not fixed.
In other words, we are to see a media barrage leading up to the IPO to get retail investors to jump on the stock.
At some point selling a dollar for 5 cents stops being a viable strategy.
PS: Not.
The mocking is usually an attempt to get back some equilibrium, to regain leverage, to make the scary threat into something smaller.
So it looks like their tactic worked yet again. Why is it a goal? One aim is to seize and hold the initiative, and also to make you compliant when they do further transgressive or dangerous things.
This shit is getting so fucking exhausting. No, you're not going to make $30 trillion. Ever. It's second-hand embarrassing how high these idiots are after huffing their own farts.
I hope it crashes and burns -hard-, and the 'wealth' of these insipid billionaire sociopaths 'leading' these operations evaporates so they're just another crank on the street corner so they're easier to ignore.